
Four months after Davos, Hassabis put a sharper number on the same forecast: AGI around 2030, give or take a year, arriving gradually rather than as a single moment. His test for it is concrete — a model with a 1901 knowledge cutoff that could produce Einstein's 1905 insights — and by that standard current systems plainly fail. The interview is more useful than the Davos panel on two fronts. First, competitive position: he argues Google's advantage is being the only organisation holding the full stack from chips to billion-user products, citing 900 million monthly users on the Gemini app. Second, method: the AlphaFold story of choosing to fold every known protein at once rather than run a request service is his working example of what acceleration should look like. He closes on a warning aimed at the Bay Area — that direction matters more than velocity, and that the current frenetic pace is not conducive to the deep work the next advances require.
